The Blog of Ross C Brown

A long, long time ago in a blog post not so far from here, I once posted an entry discussing the merits of stockpiling anti-viral drugs on an individual basis.  Back then, the would was shook by the H5N1 Avian Influenza.  This time, it’s H1N1, or swine flu to you and me, seemingly originating from Mexico.  People are afraid, rightly so looking a some headlines particularly in the tabloids, and are turning to the internet (and worrying, to my blog) for advice on what to do now.

With the news that the World Health Organisation has increased the pandemic alert level to level four.  To put that into language which the man on the Clapham omnibus might be comfortable, a level four severity indicates “sustained human to human infection” -  a level down from levels five and six concerned with “widespread human to human infection”.

With the world sitting on the border between epidemic and pandemic the volume of visitors to my posts the subject have increased dramatically and as a result the volume of email I’ve been receiving has increased too.  Let’s tackle few of the most frequent questions I’m receiving here
Should I stockpile anti-viral medications for my family, just in case?

Now, should you have asked me this a number of months ago I would have most certainly said no.  Now, I’m not too sure.  Everything I know about personal survival that being dependant on the state is a bad thing.  The UK Government are reporting that they have stockpiled enough of the drug to treat half the country.  Great, so there’s a 50% chance that the state will help you out so unless you are essential to the operation of the country (civil servants, healthcare professionals, law enforcement, etc) or are at a higher risk to seasonal flu, I wouldn’t bet on the state to help you.

Another problem with depending on the state for help is that you have to mingle with other people.  Other sick people.  The government have already advised people against visiting GPs surgeries because of this risk.  By the time the state come to help, it’s already too late.

Another worrying statement has come from Roche indicating that they will soon be cutting back on manufacture of the drug due to reduced demand.  This means that if stockpiled stocks are depleted, there could be problems in quickly manufacturing more.

And the downside of stockpiling?  Well, there is the real threat of the virus developing a resistance to the the medication.  Also, a private prescription including consultation and prescribing charges makes Oseltamivir expensive.  In the region of £15 per pill from online pharmacies.

So, what about masks?  Are they any good?

Yes, if you don’t mind looking silly and buy the right one.  No, if you buy the wrong ones.  Contrary to popular belief, surgeon’s type masks that are distributed en masse are not designed to protect the wearer from the threat – in actuality they are better at preventing the wearer from being a threat.  What you need is a half mask respirator from a reputable vendor (I like 3M).  These masks are specifically designed for medical use are are what you need if you intend to be in close contact (three to six feet) of a source of infection.  Look for a EN 149 FFP2 mask if you are in the UK for moderate protection.  Or an EN 149 FFP3 for enchanted filtration.

3M make a nice and comfortable EN 149 FFP3 vented mask.  The vented masks include a one-way valve that makes for easier exhalation and a more pleasant experience.  However, a vented mask cannot be used on an infected person to prevent the spread of infection.  Un-vented masks are good of those infected as they provide two way protection, however the masks are warmer and do little to mitigate the build up of moisture within the mask.

Masks alone shouldn’t be your only defence.  Good personal hygiene and more frequent hand-washing are important too.

What else do I need to know?

Not much, right now we are in the early sages of this outbreak.  The basic principals of personal urban survival prevail.  Prepare your own contingency plan now.  Think about working form home, avoiding risks such as public transport and places where a large number of people come together.  Plan for a city evacuation and consider how you’ll survive should the normal order of things break down in the event of a full out pandemic.

But don’t panic and be realistic.  Above all, keep informed – Ideally not from fear mongering bloggers but more credible news outlets.

Updates

Selected updated:
11:40 – Pharmacies reporting a rush on Tamiflu/Oseltamivir.
11:25 – Twitter users report wait lists and trips to multiple pharmacies in order to buy respirators and face masks.  Governments taking action to stockpile masks.